Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the nation and caused disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or activists are willing to participate even with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two articles that aim for neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments range over identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has possesses important lessons to acquire from the alternative positions."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must join the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
